Tiverton, Rhode Island 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

175
FXUS61 KBOX 101906
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
306 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level disturbance will bring scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms through the evening with locally heavy downpours. A
few strong storms are possible late today. It remains
seasonably warm and generally dry for mid to late week. We then
enter into a cloudy and more unsettled weather pattern again
for the weekend into early next week with daily rain chances,
but with better chances on Saturday. Cooler than average high
temperatures for the weekend into early next week, with
seasonable low temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

Key Messages...

* Lingering showers and a few t-storms with locally heavy downpours
  for the next few hours.

* Low risk for a strong late day t-storm across western MA/CT.

An upper low trough is sitting over the Great Lakes this afternoon
with a secondary surface low pressure passing over southern New
England. This continues to send a lot of moisture north with PWATs
approaching 2 inches over eastern MA where the remaining heavy rain
showers and thunderstorms continue along a stationary boundary. This
moisture plume will continue its trek east with drier air filtering
in west; we`re only just beginning to see breaks in the clouds in
Berkshire county but these will expand east. As it does, diurnal
heating will increase the amount of instability available for
another quick shot at a few strong thunderstorms. This secondary
round will come ahead of tonight`s cold front, so likely moving
through western MA around sunset, then quickly falling apart as it
moves east and loses instability. Still some question as to how much
we clear ahead of the front, but modest destabilization combined
with strong mid-level flow and resulting shear will mean the chance
for a storm or two to become severe. The main threat would be from
damaging wind gusts.

Storms will be limited to western/central MA and CT this evening,
and after these come to an end drier air continues to move in
leading to steadily clearing skies. The slowest to clear will be the
stratus and patchy fog over the Cape and Islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Key Messages...

* Warm and dry Wednesday with comfortable humidity.

Mid level heights will be on the rise on Wednesday as surface high
pressure moves closer. Plenty of sun expected with only some widely
scattered diurnal cumulus expected in the interior. Warm advection
will lead to highs much warmer than today, in the 80s. The exception
will be the south coast where onshore flow keeps temps in the 70s.
Dewpoints drop from the mid 60s into the 50s for the interior, so it
won`t feel as humid. Risk for dangerous rip currents will be
elevated for south coast beaches thanks to increasing southerly
swell. Quiet weather expected overnight under high pressure. Lows
will be warmer than the previous night, in the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Key Messages:

* Warm and generally dry Thurs-Fri.

* Turning unsettled by the weekend and into early next week. Better
  chances for showers / t-storms Sat, with lesser chances on Sun-
  Mon. Timing and areal coverage details are still uncertain.

* Temps for the weekend into early next week trend cooler than
  average on highs (60s to lower-mid 70s), and seasonable on lows.

Details:

Global ensemble means point to Southern New England being entrenched
in a rather broad W/WNW cyclonic flow aloft with an elongated west-
to-east sfc frontal boundary lying over or near the vicinity of
Southern New England. This boundary separates cooler and drier air
over Quebec and Ontario to the north, and a warm and increasingly
humid airmass associated with an extension of the Bermuda ridge
south of the boundary over the mid-Atlantic and southeastern CONUS.
Predictability becomes lower than average as we move into

Looks as though Thurs and Fri should pan out generally dry with very
weak subsidence in place. Warmest temperatures for Thurs in the 80s,
then start to cool off into Fri into the 70s/low 80s.

Thereafter, predictability dwindles and becomes lower-than-average
for the weekend, with continued rather substantial disagreement on
the details across the various global model ensembles and their
members. Heights slightly fall by Sat with weak vort energy
propagating along the quasi-stationary/sagging frontal boundary.
This portends another unsettled start to the weekend with cloud
cover increasing chances for showers or t-storms. Although this is a
pattern favoring unsettled weather, the timing and spatial coverage
details are still pretty elusive, details will most likely hinge on
sub-synoptic-scale features which aren`t resolved by the coarser-res
ensembles. Will carry a broad-brush to PoPs in the high chance to
likely range for Sat. Frontal boundary then sags southward for Sun,
leading to a cooler/more thermodynamically-stable profile driven
largely by NE onshore flow. There may still be a risk for showers
Sun but indication from ensemble means favors better chances on Sat
than on Sun. Highs Sat and Sun both look to be below average in the
60s to low-mid 70s, with seasonable lows in the 50s.

A stronger though deamplifying midlevel trough then nears the
central Appalachians/mid-Atlc region early next week. This probably
keeps our weather pattern unsettled but details are still uncertain
with large spread in ensembles on the details.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...

This afternoon...Moderate confidence.

Widespread IFR-LIFR this afternoon with scattered to numerous
showers and embedded t-storms moving across the region through
early afternoon. Gradual improvement to MVFR-VFR in the CT
valley after 20z. A line of thunderstorms exits NY in the
afternoon and may hold together into the CT river valley, but
quickly diminishes thereafter. Light NE winds becoming S-SE this
afternoon.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence.

A few residual showers about early Tuesday evening otherwise
expect a dry night. Ceilings quickly improve through the night
to VFR. Light W winds. Chance for patchy FG/BR in spots.

Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR. WSW-SW wind 10-20 kt.

Wednesday night...High confidence.

VFR. W wind 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

LIFR ceilings and visibility`s likely remain through 04z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

IFR/ low end MVFR today with scattered showers this morning.
Low chance for thunderstorms this evening.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Sunday: Breezy. Chance SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Wednesday night: High Confidence.

W- SW winds 10-15 tonight and SW 10-20 kt Wednesday. Increasing
southerly swell will result in seas building to 5-6 ft over
southern waters tonight into Wed. SW winds 10-15kt Wednesday
night with seas 2-4 ft.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rain showers likely, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for MAZ023-024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
     evening for RIZ008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/BW